#经济数据指标 Seeing this prediction from Morgan Stanley, I recalled those discussions about the "eternal bull run" from 2015. Back then, analysts confidently drew attractive curves, and the non-essential consumer goods zone was also highly anticipated, but what happened? In 2016, a "black swan" shattered confidence into pieces.

However, that being said, this logic cannot be completely dismissed. The improvement in corporate profits, a moderately weak labor market rather than a sharp deterioration, and the shift in Federal Reserve policy are indeed moving in a positive direction. Interestingly, they specifically mentioned that the earnings trend of the Nasdaq 100 began to strengthen from late October—these micro data turnarounds are often more reliable than macro forecasts.

There are still 14 months until 2026, and this period is enough for a couple of reversals. My experience is: when large institutions are all singing the same tune, it's actually worth paying attention to those silent corners. Small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods have indeed been undervalued, but a rebound after being disparaged and long-term recovery are two different things. Can interest rates really continue to decrease? How long can commodity demand be maintained? These are the variables that will determine the final direction in 2026.

History tells me that the best opportunities often lie not in the moment a prediction is announced, but in the unnoticed details during execution.