The probability of interest rate cuts in January has fallen to 22%. What does this number hide?

The rapid shift in market expectations has shattered the earlier assumptions of interest rate cuts. All eyes are now focused on one person - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Every statement he makes could trigger a chain reaction in global asset allocation.
The signals are quietly changing. The recent remarks by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams are worth pondering: inflation may be underestimated by the market, and the actual data could be more severe. What does this mean? A simple translation is — the interest rate cut cycle may come later, and the high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period.
But the story is far from simple. The "loose game" between the White House and the Federal Reserve is taking place in the shadows, with political pressure and market logic engaging in a tug-of-war. The current market is like a tightly wound spring, where any unexpected data or remarks can trigger a chain reaction.
What does this high level of uncertainty mean for traders?
**Do not bet on the direction.** This is the only survival rule at the moment. Maintain enough maneuvering space, leaving ample position and capital flexibility. Closely track upcoming economic data and pay attention to the remarks of various Federal Reserve officials. Once market expectations reverse, the rebound space may far exceed expectations.
The laws of history are harsh: the lower the expectations are suppressed, the higher the rebound can soar. The current pessimism is accumulating momentum, and the next trigger point may be just around the corner. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like ETH, DOGE, and PEPE are also in this highly sensitive state—once the macro expectations reverse, the reaction of the crypto market is often more intense.
The eye of the storm has formed. The trigger point for the next wave of market movements may be in the next announcement or the next set of data. Are you ready?