#比特币市场周期与价格 Standard Chartered Bank has cut its Bitcoin price prediction for this year from 200,000 to 100,000. This seems quite hurtful, but upon careful consideration, the underlying logic is actually worth pondering.

Do you remember the crazy round of 2017? Various institutions took turns to sing praises, and the result was a long bear market after a reversal. History loves to repeat itself, just under a different guise. This time, the key point is not in Bitcoin itself, but in the shift of the driving force— the enthusiasm for corporate bulk purchases has faded, aggressive buyers like MicroStrategy have already saturated the market, and now all bets are placed on ETFs.

Data from December speaks volumes: the quarterly ETF inflow has dropped to 50,000 BTC, marking a low since the launch of the spot ETF. Last year's fourth quarter saw 450,000, and now only a tenth remains. The change in market sentiment can also be seen from Polymarket's predictions— the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 has fallen from 33% to 30%, while the likelihood of dropping below 80,000 is approaching 37%. This is a typical expectation re-evaluation.

But I want to say that this isn't necessarily a bad thing. History tells us that every time there is a significant adjustment in price expectations, it is often the best moment for a wake-up call. True opportunities never arise when flowers are in full bloom, but at the moment when everyone starts to doubt. Standard Chartered pushing back their target of $500,000 to 2030, what does it indicate? It indicates that they are still bullish, just acknowledging that this cycle may be longer than expected.

The cycle is like this: every "disappointment" is the energy accumulation for the next takeoff.