#稳定币项目与生态 Seeing the news that the stablecoin is launching on the Mainnet tonight, the first thought that flashed through my mind was: another stablecoin project is coming.

I have seen too many similar scenes over the years. I still remember back in 2017 when the concept of stablecoins just emerged, everyone was so skeptical about USDT—centralized, opaque audits, and a simplistic technical architecture. And what happened? It has survived to this day and has become the biggest winner. Many projects tried to overthrow it in the meantime, from DAI to UST, from algorithmic stablecoins to over-collateralized models, going around in circles; those that needed to be eliminated were eliminated, and those that survived have found their own positions.

Currently, the probability of betting on the first day FDV of Stable on Polymarket exceeding $2 billion has reached 86%, with the pre-market price benchmarked against a $3.5 billion valuation. This figure is quite interesting in itself — the market has set a very high expectation, but it also exposes the risks. History tells me that the higher the valuation at the start, the more complex the subsequent story often becomes.

The core of the stablecoin ecosystem is actually a trust issue. The reason USDT has come this far is not due to the most advanced technology, but rather market dependence. Every new project that comes along needs to answer the same questions: How do you ensure stability? What is your reserve management mechanism? Can you withstand the test under extreme market conditions?

I tend to observe the performance of these new projects in the first three months. The explosion of FDV is just the beginning; the real test comes later - the depth of trading pairs, the ability to peg, and the breadth of ecological applications. Too many projects fail at this stage.

Let's wait and see the specific performance after it goes live; the data will speak for itself.