#稳定币 Stable Mainnet has been launched, and Token claims are now open. According to the prediction data from Polymarket, the probability of the first day's FDV exceeding $2 billion is 85%, a figure worth following.

Let’s break down the underlying logic: high-probability predictions usually reflect the market's consensus on the project's fundamentals, but one must also be wary that such predictions may become self-fulfilling prophecies. The key is to observe the actual liquidity situation after the application— the true value anchor of stablecoin projects lies in ecological applications and capital accumulation, not in the first-day valuation.

It is recommended to focus on several key signals: first, the distribution of wallet holdings after claiming, to determine if there is a concentration of large amounts; second, the real depth of liquidity in trading pairs, to see if it can support the expected trading volume; third, the integration progress of stablecoins with other protocols. The short-term FDV figures can be easily hyped up, but whether they can truly circulate within the ecosystem is the key to determining their long-term value.

Continuously monitor on-chain data and make further judgments on the flow of funds after the application is completed.