Quantum computing approaching? Bitcoin needs ten years to upgrade its defenses, 1.7 million BTC face risks

【CryptoWorld】Smart contract pioneer Nic Carter recently published an in-depth analysis discussing the real threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin security. According to renowned quantum theory scholar Scott Aaronson’s research, cracking Bitcoin doesn’t actually require breakthroughs in physics—it’s merely an “extremely difficult” engineering problem.

Sounds like there’s still hope, right? Theoretically, there are solutions. Bitcoin could introduce “post-quantum” (PQ) signature schemes through a soft fork, and there are indeed many quantum-resistant encryption schemes available on the market. But the reality is much more complicated.

First, a decision must be made on which post-quantum scheme to use. Second, a network-wide soft fork must be organized—which is a dual challenge of political and technical nature. The most troublesome part is that millions of addresses with balances need to be migrated. Nic Carter’s conclusion is that this upgrade process could take nearly ten years to complete.

Even more concerning is that a large number of vulnerable Bitcoin addresses are sitting in abandoned wallets. The original owners of these addresses have long disappeared, making it impossible to force them to transfer their assets. Therefore, even if Bitcoin upgrades to post-quantum signatures, approximately 1.7 million BTC remain at risk of being stolen overnight by quantum attackers.

To eliminate this risk entirely, the Bitcoin community not only needs to promote a coordinated and timely upgrade but also requires all holders to agree to “freeze” these 1.7 million BTC. This has never happened before in Bitcoin’s history. Nic Carter thus urges Bitcoin developers and the community to stop being overly optimistic and to take action now.