Fidelity's leading macro analyst predicts the end of the bull cycle in 2026 - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Leading macro analyst at Fidelity forecasts the end of the bull cycle in 2026

The historic four-year Bitcoin cycle has ended, so next year the cryptocurrency is expected to experience a prolonged decline. This opinion was expressed by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Research, Jurrien Timmer.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

He also emphasized that he still maintains bullish sentiment regarding the prospects of the first cryptocurrency.

According to the expert, reaching a historic high above $126 000 in October could indicate the peak of the current cycle “both in price and in time.”

“Bitcoin could very well have completed another four-year cycle phase after the halving. Crypto winters usually last about a year, so in my view, 2026 will be a ‘year of rest’,” he wrote.

Timmer added that support for the asset is in the range of from $65 000 to $75 000.

Not Everyone Agrees

The macro analyst’s conclusions contradict the industry consensus about the “death” of four-year Bitcoin cycles. Several experts believe that this theory is no longer relevant due to the influx of a large number of institutional investors into the market.

Companies like Bitwise and Grayscale, in their forecasts for next year, noted that they expect new price records for the cryptocurrency. According to analysts, this will be facilitated by:

• increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs;
• growing global demand for alternative stores of value;
• further improvement in the regulatory environment in the US.

Co-founder of Delphi Digital, Tom Shonessi, is also confident in a rally for digital gold in 2026.

My crypto thesis is simple

Crypto’s fundamental progress (Wall Street, Regulatory, Protocols, all of it) is very strong. We are working through a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event that broke the market. Once that’s worked through, we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices… https://t.co/TkivG2PEN0

— Tommy (@Shaughnessy119) December 19, 2025

"We are still recovering from the catastrophic liquidations of October 10," he wrote, “which broke the market. Once this is behind us, we will reach new all-time highs.”

According to the expert, the dynamics of the crypto market will be determined by “fundamental progress” in the industry, including increasing adoption by Wall Street companies and positive regulatory changes.

However, investor sentiment remains pessimistic. Derivatives advocates have hedged risks of Bitcoin falling below $85 000.

Recall that experts from the Checkonchain platform and analyst under the nickname MorenoDV warned about the absence of a “final capitulation” of the first cryptocurrency.