#美联储降息预期 Looking back at history, it’s not hard to see that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are often key turning points in the market. This time, the PCE data shows inflation easing, providing an opportunity for rate cuts. However, the crypto market has shown a decoupling from the stock market, with Bitcoin once dropping to around $87,000. This reminds me of 2019, when the market also experienced significant fluctuations due to expectations of rate cuts.

The key is whether BTC can hold the support zone between $89,000 and $90,700. Past experience tells us that as long as this critical support is maintained, the market structure still has room to move upward. However, we should also be cautious of overly optimistic sentiment. Remember at the end of 2018, many believed the bear market was about to end, only for the market to undergo another deep correction.

Currently, institutional funds are still flowing in, which is a positive sign. But we also need to pay attention to internal factors such as options expirations and large investors’ actions. The upcoming FOMC meeting will be an important point of observation. In the long run, accommodative policies are indeed beneficial for risk assets, but in the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate between macroeconomic positives and internal volatility.

Having experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, I understand the importance of patience and caution. At this stage, closely monitoring capital flows and market sentiment changes might be wiser than blindly chasing gains or selling in panic. After all, in this fast-changing market, past experience tells us that opportunities and risks often coexist.