#比特币价格走势分析 Looking back on the past, witnessing every rise and fall of Bitcoin from its inception to today. Now there are predictions that Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000, which makes me think of the 2017 bull market. At that time, many also predicted Bitcoin would break through $100,000, and as everyone knows, it didn't happen.

However, this time the situation seems a bit different. Predictions on Polymarket show a 50% chance of reaching $100,000 this year. This number isn't high, but it's not low either. What's more interesting is that James Wynn, the "bankrupt" trader, is actually bullish, expecting a rebound to the $97,000 to $103,000 range. I remember he previously issued an accurate warning about the decline.

Let's also look at Wolfe Research's analysis. They believe now is a good time to buy on dips, but also point out that ETF fund inflows remain weak. This reminds me of the early stages of the 2013 and 2017 bull markets, where investor sentiment often improves ahead of fundamentals.

History always repeats itself surprisingly. Every cycle of bull and bear markets involves optimists and pessimists betting against each other. The key is to understand the current phase of the cycle. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has indeed returned to a critical support zone. But whether it can break through the psychological barrier of $100,000 depends on the upcoming capital flows and regulatory stance.

Having experienced multiple cycles, my biggest insight is: never underestimate market irrationality, and never overestimate your own judgment. Maintaining cautious optimism and good risk management might be the wisest choice at this moment.