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The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting today and tomorrow, with the results announced on the 19th! I personally think there is a very high probability of a rate hike, which is the core negative factor suppressing risk assets recently! Last night, some of this was already priced in advance, plus there is a CPI report at 9:30 tonight! The most #成长值抽奖赢金条和精美周边 recent market movements will become very exciting! #币圈##区块链#
Let me explain the core logic of these two pieces of news:
Meeting: In the past, many institutions "borrow cheap yen and exchange it for dollars to buy other higher-yielding assets." Now that Japan is raising interest rates, borrowing costs increase, and the yen will appreciate. This trade no longer makes money — institutions will quickly sell other assets, convert back to yen, and repay loans!
CPI: It measures whether prices are rising. Low inflation = the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January increases → the dollar becomes less valuable → funds will flow into other higher-yielding assets; high inflation = the Fed may not cut rates → funds will be pulled from other assets to buy dollars!
The operation suggestion is just four words: short on rallies~