Tonight's CPI data is about to be released, which is a key factor influencing the market direction. Let's first see what impact different scenarios might have on the crypto space.

If CPI is below expectations, the expectation of rate cuts will intensify, the US dollar will weaken accordingly, and a loose liquidity environment will be favorable for cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay its rate cut plans, high interest rates will persist, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, and liquidity in the crypto market will tighten. What if CPI meets expectations? The market is likely to enter a neutral consolidation phase, with little impact on the crypto space.

Looking at the current technical situation, BTC's hourly chart has already shown four consecutive bullish candles, indicating a strong structure. This trend is very similar to the performance before yesterday's non-farm payroll data. Combined with macro news-driven momentum, it is likely to continue upward. If CPI truly comes in below expectations, BTC will probably continue to challenge the 90,000 level, which was the upper shadow of the 4-hour candle yesterday. Even if CPI exceeds expectations, there will usually be an initial upward surge before considering a pullback.

The trading strategy is very clear: focus on support levels. BTC around 86,300 can be lightly longed, with a key support level set at 84,800 as a defense. The upward targets are 87,800 and 88,500. If these levels are broken, keep an eye on 90,000. If 90,000 cannot hold, reversing to short positions might be a better choice.