#非农数据超预期.

The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates early, but it will change its stance in advance

I don’t think the Federal Reserve will immediately cut rates because of this set of non-farm payroll data, but I believe it will change its communication approach ahead of time. Compared to actual actions, a shift in attitude often has a more immediate and direct impact on the market.

The rise in the unemployment rate combined with historically significant downward revisions in employment figures is beginning to loosen the logic of “maintaining high interest rates for longer.” In upcoming meetings, the Federal Reserve is more likely to emphasize “data dependence” and “risk balance” rather than solely stressing inflation threats.

This change is very critical for the crypto market. Crypto doesn’t need an immediate rate cut; it only needs the “worst-case scenario to be negated.” As long as the market confirms that the tightening cycle is nearing its end, liquidity assets will be supported by valuation.

Therefore, instead of focusing on the single monthly non-farm payroll report, it’s better to observe changes in policy language, which is the real weather vane.