Japan is about to raise interest rates, will Bitcoin have to fall again? This question seems urgent, but looking back at history makes it interesting.

Let's review Bitcoin's actual performance during each of Japan's monetary policy shifts:

In 2016, the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates (-0.1%). What happened after that? Bitcoin soared from $400 to $20,000, and the entire 2016-2017 period was a frenzy.

In 2018, Japan started to consider whether to exit easing measures. Although they ultimately did not raise interest rates, Bitcoin still experienced a bear market, dropping from $20,000 to $3,000. Policy expectations themselves seemed to be of little use.

By 2022, the world was aggressively raising interest rates, but Japan stubbornly "refused to move," continuing to pump liquidity. The result? Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,500, completely unprotected by the Bank of Japan.

In 2024, a turning point arrived as Japan officially announced the end of the negative interest rate era (-0.1% to 0%). In 2025, rates continued to rise to 0.5%, 0.75%, and are expected to go further in December.

Looking at this data, the pattern is very clear: every time Japan shifts policy, Bitcoin may fluctuate in the short term, but the long-term impact is minimal. The factors that determine Bitcoin's fate? Honestly, they have never been in Japan.