#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 I looked at an analysis of on-exchange leverage data in the US stock market and feel that the market is indeed a bit inflated right now. According to indicators like FINRA margin debt, starting from mid-2025, leverage positions have been steadily increasing, and the implied leverage level across the market has noticeably risen.

Honestly, this level has already surpassed the mid-term peaks after 2009. Comparing historically, only around 2007 can be comparable, but it hasn't reached the absurd levels of the internet bubble in 2000—though such a comparison is quite frightening.

The current logic is simple: the market's rise is mainly driven by liquidity flows, and fundamentals are becoming less important. Once on-exchange leverage begins to retreat and this indicator turns downward, market sentiment will immediately shift, and we may enter a medium- to long-term correction phase.

History has shown us a pattern— the higher the leverage position, the sharper the decline when deleveraging occurs. Using this logic, the current correction could be even more severe than the bear market from November 2021 to December 2022. If liquidity suddenly tightens, the risks could be quite significant, so it's important to stay cautious.