#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The latest Federal Reserve policy signals interpretation: slowing pace of rate cuts, restart of liquidity injections

Last week's FOMC meeting concluded, and Powell released several key signals worth noting.

**Rate cut confirmed, but disagreements widened**

The expected 25bp rate cut was approved, but there was a split in the voting camp—9 votes in favor, 3 votes against. This reflects a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future policy direction. The dot plot indicates only one more rate cut in 2026, suggesting the rate-cut cycle is nearing its end with a noticeably slower pace.

**Candid statement on inflation's nature**

Powell unusually clarified: "Without tariffs, inflation would already be around 2%." This indicates that current price pressures are mainly driven by tariffs rather than overheating demand. According to the Fed's estimates, inflation caused by tariffs will peak in Q1 2026 and then decline significantly in the second half of the year.

**Employment data hints**

The Fed has for the first time characterized employment risks as "significantly downside," revealing that non-farm payroll data may be overestimated by about 60,000. More painfully, they believe the actual situation could be a monthly decline of 20,000 since April. Recent government shutdowns have distorted the data, further increasing policy uncertainty.

**Liquidity replenishment officially underway**

This is the part the market needs to focus on— the Fed will restart its short-term Treasury bill (T-bills) purchase program to replenish reserves to "adequate" levels. The scale of purchases will remain high for "several months," amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars per month. This marks a shift in the Fed's policy framework from "fighting inflation" to "balancing risks."

**Growth outlook slightly adjusted but still low**

Growth for 2025-2026 has been revised slightly upward to around 1.7%, partly due to "intertemporal shifts" caused by the government shutdown. Rate hikes are no longer part of anyone's baseline expectations. The rise in Treasury yields is interpreted as a reassessment of growth expectations rather than a rebound in inflation concerns.

**Understanding market implications**

The slowdown in rate cuts, worsening employment, and the restart of liquidity injections—these signals imply that the market's policy support expectations are warming again, but growth momentum requires close monitoring. Powell's "focus on remaining term" suggests his term may end after May 2026, and subsequent policy continuity warrants attention.