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Last week, the US November non-farm payroll report was released, and the data was considered "disappointing"—only 64,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate jumped directly to 4.6%. Logically, this should be a clear bearish signal, but the market's reaction was completely opposite: gold surged all the way to 4280, and various assets also started to stir.
What exactly is going on?
To put it simply, the market's logic has changed. In the past, good economic data was bullish, and bad data was bearish. Now? Bad data is interpreted as—The Federal Reserve needs to loosen monetary policy. There is solid support behind this shift: last week, the Fed indeed took action—cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated the so-called "technical balance sheet expansion" operation. In other words, the liquidity gate is opening.
But don’t think too simply. Divisions within the Federal Reserve have reached a five-year high, and inflationary pressures still loom overhead, meaning policies won't be implemented all at once. The likely next phase is a "shock upward" process, with the market oscillating back and forth between confirmation and re-confirmation.
The most crucial change is this: we have shifted from a passive market that "reads data for cues" to an active market that "bets on policy expectations." The traditional bull-bear judgment framework has already become ineffective under this logic.
Gold took the lead and moved ahead, with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin also gathering momentum. The real driving force behind this rally is less about how good the economy actually is, and more about how strong liquidity expectations are. Funds will flow where opportunities are.
This time, it's really a bet on policy rather than on the economy. Let's wait and see how the Fed's internal debates unfold.
Once liquidity is unleashed, wherever the money flows becomes the hotspot; you have to keep up.
Now, data like non-farm payrolls have become signals of easing; the world has changed.
Gold at 4280 has already taken the lead, while the crypto market is still gathering strength. Let's see who moves faster next.
Bad news is being used as good news; this new market logic is truly remarkable. A steady upward trend sounds good, but I'm worried the confirmation process might be too tumultuous.
The internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve indicate that policy won't stay this loose forever; we need to watch out for reversals.
Liquidity expectations are now more important than economic fundamentals; if this perception doesn't change, it’s easy to get caught off guard.
Once the liquidity gate opens, funds will rush in all directions. It's not surprising that gold has surged to 4280, and BTC will continue to rise.
Speaking of which, with such deep internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, how long can this rally last? It still feels like we need clearer policy signals.
Betting on policy expectations is much more profitable than trading the economic spread. The key is that policies always come with surprises.
Gold is the leader, and cryptocurrencies are following the excitement. This is the liquidity game. The current question is whether funds will really pour into BTC.
The five-year high divergence is right there; the Fed might not be as hawkish as expected. Anyway, the positive outlook seems to be solidified.
However, the phrase "oscillating upward" is a bit vague. Where exactly will the oscillation go?
I've said it before: looking at data isn't as good as watching where the money flows. That’s the real key.
Once liquidity opens up, everything becomes tradable, gold and cryptocurrencies are both getting volatile—this is the current game rule
With so many disagreements within the Federal Reserve, it seems like there will be repeated fluctuations; I need to observe a few more times before making a judgment
Betting on policy expectations is more profitable than betting on fundamentals—that's the harsh truth right now
Capital flow is everything; following hot money is definitely the right move, but the problem is how to know where they will go next
A sideways upward movement sounds good, but I'm just worried it might be a false breakout again, a trick to cut leeks
Inflation is still there, the Federal Reserve can't really be that aggressive; we need to defend this high level well
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Really, now looking at economic data in reverse, it feels like the entire game rules have changed
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The Fed's internal disagreements are so big, yet liquidity is still so strong, funds really only care about money
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Betting on policy expectations is more profitable than looking at fundamentals, I think I’ve finally figured it out
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Gold at 4280, Bitcoin gathering strength, this is a signal of large-scale liquidity injection
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Good or bad data both benefit the market, how can we judge? We can only follow the flow of funds
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The market has shifted from reading the mood to betting on expectations, such a quick change is really hard to get used to
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The Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet, the strategy has changed, the traditional framework is indeed failing
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An unemployment rate of 4.6% should have caused a sell-off, but gold surged instead, this is the true meaning of "bad is good"
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Instead of obsessing over economic data, it’s better to ask where the liquidity is flowing to, that’s the next big opportunity