According to Golden Ten Data, well-known Wall Street short-seller analyst Peter Berezin recently issued a warning. He believes that by early 2026, as funds flow from technology stocks to traditional sectors and shift from high-growth to value investing, the decline in the US stock market may just be beginning.

According to his forecast, the S&P 500 index is expected to close at 5,280 points by the end of 2026, a decline of 23% for the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index could perform even worse, with an estimated drop of 31%. Meanwhile, there will also be noticeable adjustments in the international currency markets— the weakening of the US dollar has become a trend, and the USD/JPY may reach 115 by the end of the year.

Interestingly, in this environment of global liquidity tightening, gold continues to hit new highs, reflecting growing investor concerns about an economic recession. This divergence in expectations will force the Federal Reserve to take action— it is expected that in the second half of 2026, the Fed will significantly accelerate its rate cuts. By the end of the year, the federal funds rate could fall to 2.25%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield could drop to 3.1%.

For cryptocurrency market participants, this macro environment is worth paying close attention to. Weak US dollar, liquidity release, and safe-haven assets heating up— these factors often catalyze a reshaping of investment logic for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.