Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US will simultaneously release the October and November non-farm employment data—this delayed report could become a turning point for the market at the end of the year.

In terms of timing, the data will be announced at 9:30 PM Beijing time (8:30 AM Eastern Time). Due to the government shutdown causing delays, this release will cover two months' worth of data at once, and market expectations are quite dispersed. The median forecast for November non-farm employment increase is 50,000 jobs, but the range spans from -20,000 to +130,000, with major investment banks offering different opinions—Moody's Analytics expects a decrease of 15,000, BNP Paribas predicts an increase of 20,000, DeCar, Standard Chartered, and Stifel see 30,000, ING and Nomura forecast 40,000, Wells Fargo is more optimistic at 45,000, Citibank predicts 80,000, and TD Securities even expects a 70,000 increase. Such wide divergence indicates that the market is still trying to gauge the true direction of US employment.

Regarding the unemployment rate, expectations are for it to rise to 4.5%, which would be a new high since 2021, with some institutions' forecasts ranging between 4.4% and 4.6%. As for average hourly earnings, the annual rate is expected to be 3.6%, with a monthly increase of about 0.3%. As for the delayed October data, most predictions point to negative growth, likely between -10,000 and -60,000, with Citibank forecasting -45,000 and TD Securities being more pessimistic at -60,000.

The significance of this report also lies in the fact that the data collection process was extended during the government shutdown, which may lead to statistical distortions. For crypto assets, non-farm payroll data directly impacts market expectations of the Federal Reserve's future policies, especially regarding the scope for rate cuts. If the data underperform expectations, risk assets may rebound; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, a correction could be triggered.