There are a few things to keep an eye on right now.

**Non-Farm Payrolls Report is a Decisive Moment**

Tonight at 21:30, the November non-farm data along with the revised October data will be released together. The market has already largely priced in no rate cuts in January next year, so there’s no big surprise there. However, this non-farm report still has the potential to cause waves and become a trigger for a short-term reversal in expectations.

How to interpret it? The key lies in the strength of the data. If job gains are far below the market expectation of 50,000 and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, these signals will be quite clear — the labor market is indeed weakening. Once confirmed, the market will be more inclined to bet on subsequent easing cycles, and the timing of rate cuts could be brought forward. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and looks better, most will interpret it as seasonal adjustment noise and data correction, with limited impact on the overall trend.

**The Battle for the Fed Chair is Heating Up**

There’s an interesting development here. Previously, Haskett almost had a monopoly, with a clear overwhelming advantage. But recently, voices of "opposition from the top" have started to ferment, causing Haskett’s chances of being selected to plummet dramatically. Meanwhile, Waller’s probability is steadily rising, showing a clear "relay upward" trend. The market is now in a typical "news-driven + rapid re-pricing" phase, where who leads the Federal Reserve will have a profound impact on monetary policy direction, so this trading logic is undergoing a noticeable shift.

**PMI Data Could Rewrite the 26-Year Rate Cut Rhythm**

Tonight at 22:45, the US December S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI preliminary figures will also be released. This will significantly influence the pricing of rate cuts next year. If both PMIs are weaker than expected, it will reinforce the market’s expectation of rate cuts in 2026, possibly pushing for more aggressive pricing. But if the data unexpectedly strengthens, the market will have to ponder — will there be one or two rate cuts in 2026? Perhaps it’s time to question that. Once expectations are adjusted downward, the dollar could gain some support.

These three sources of information tonight are all indispensable, each capable of rewriting the upcoming market trajectory.