Brothers, there is a major event at 9:30 PM tonight that will impact the market.

The US non-farm payroll data, originally released on the first Friday of each month, has been delayed due to the government budget crisis and is now being released in one go. Tonight, they will release both the incomplete October data and the full November data. It's like playing cards—normally one card at a time, but this time they’re revealing two at once, and the energy is completely different.

So, what does this mean for our coins and candlestick charts?

**The market is currently at a macro narrative crossroads.** Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and Powell repeatedly emphasized in his speech that the US labor market is showing downside risks. The implicit message is clear—more easing may come next year. The essence of tonight’s data release is to test whether Powell’s "The wolf is coming" warning is real or not.

Understand these points, and you can judge the market trend:

**First, the data is likely to be disappointing**

Market expectations are that November will add only 50,000 jobs. Historically, this is an underwhelming figure. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.5%. Simple logic: the worse the data, the weaker the US economy, and the more justification the Fed has to continue easing.

In crypto language, bad news = good news. Why? Easing means abundant liquidity, and with large amounts of capital having no place to go, high-risk, high-reward crypto markets become money magnets. Capital flows from traditional finance into digital assets—an inevitable macro cycle.

**Second, October data has flaws**

The official figures admit that October’s data is incomplete, meaning the real numbers could be worse than reported. The market will discount this variable, but the expected gap remains significant.

**Third, Fed rhetoric is crucial**

After the data is released, focus on how Powell’s team interprets it. If they emphasize economic weakness and employment pressure, it confirms expectations of further rate cuts—good for the crypto market. Conversely, if they highlight resilience in employment, it may slow down the rate cut pace next year, putting pressure on the crypto market.

**In summary:** If the data is indeed disappointing and the Fed continues to signal easing, liquidity expectations will rise, providing short-term support for digital assets. But if the market reacts overly pessimistically, leading to a chain sell-off of risk assets, the crypto space won’t be immune. So, treat tonight as an important risk event—holders should prepare stop-losses, and those not in the market shouldn’t chase highs in a hurry.