#加密生态动态追踪 Non-Farm Payrolls data could become the key trigger for recent interest rate cut expectations

Tonight at 21:30, the US will release the November Non-Farm Payrolls report (including the revised October data). This data will directly determine how the market prices in the Federal Reserve's policy for next year. The rate market has mostly discounted the possibility of no rate cuts in January, but the real volatility may come from this number—

If the data significantly underperforms relative to market expectations of "50,000 new jobs + 4.4% unemployment rate," the crypto market is likely to rapidly reprice, betting on a more aggressive easing pace ahead. Conversely, if the data unexpectedly exceeds expectations, the market may attribute this to data revisions and seasonal adjustment noise, with limited influence on the trend.

Meanwhile, the market trading logic for the Fed Chair candidate is rapidly shifting. Haskett had long been the absolute frontrunner, but with ongoing high-level negotiations fermenting, his chances of winning have plummeted. In response, Waller's support has begun to rise noticeably. The entire market has entered a typical "news-driven—rapid re-pricing" stage.

At 22:45 tonight, the US December S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI preliminary figures will be released. If these two data points fall below expectations, it will reinforce market pricing for rate cuts in 2026. But if they surprise to the upside, the market may reassess the plausibility of two rate cuts in 2026, thereby supporting the USD. At critical moments, each data release can trigger a chain reaction.