#美联储降息 The Battle for the Fed Chair: From Political Leanings to Policy Stances

Recently, the behind-the-scenes maneuvering for the Fed Chair has reflected a contest over central bank independence.

Hassett was once viewed as a supporter of Trump, which made Wall Street wary, fearing his rise would weaken the Fed's decision-making autonomy. Waller, on the other hand, has long maintained an independent stance, consistently advocating for central bank independence and warning that political interference could lead to runaway inflation. Financial elites like JPMorgan Chase CEO have expressed approval of his position.

A dramatic turn occurred when Hassett suddenly emphasized that the Federal Reserve must remain fully independent, claiming that Trump has no real influence over the FOMC, only offering suggestions, with the final decision resting on data and committee members. This shift made Trump, while outwardly accepting, feel somewhat uncomfortable. Considering his age and past experience with Powell's policy shifts, this sense of being "backstabbed" feels even sharper.

In contrast, Waller's recent change in attitude has become a key variable—he has begun to support Trump's easing policy direction. This unexpected shift was undoubtedly a pleasant surprise for Trump. It is this move that has made Waller a new favorite among the chair candidates.

Current polls show Hassett at 51% support, Waller at 40%. Behind these fluctuations is the market's re-pricing of the balance between central bank independence and policy flexibility. In the current environment of rate cuts and increasing economic uncertainty, this choice will influence the future direction of the Federal Reserve, as well as global asset allocation and cryptocurrency market expectations.