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This month at the Solana Conference in Abu Dhabi, a former senior executive from a leading investment bank shared an interesting idea.
He believes that our understanding of the crypto bull market may be biased. We often say a cycle lasts four years, but in reality, the driving force comes from the pattern of global debt maturities— the true cycle is five years, and we have already passed the bottom. A phased peak is expected by the end of 2026.
From a macro perspective, the slowdown in global population growth is a long-term trend, which directly leads to a continuous increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Against this backdrop, central banks' options are quite limited: currency devaluation + debt monetization have almost become inevitable choices. In the next year, nearly $8 trillion in new liquidity could flood into the market. The essence of crypto assets is macro allocation tools, and this liquidity wave is genuinely a positive for them.
Here's an overlooked point—people in the crypto space often focus on halving cycles, but what truly drives the market is this macro debt cycle. The relative performance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin is ultimately influenced by the business cycle. Now that the business cycle is bottoming out, it may indicate that new opportunities are brewing.
Feels like this guy is brainwashing himself about his short positions.
5-year cycle > 4-year cycle, okay, anyone can make up stories anyway.
Top around the end of 2026? Have you bet on that, brother?
Population decline leading to an increase in debt ratio, this logic is a bit backwards.
The only way out for the central bank is this, a question of knowing the answer and arguing in reverse.
Are altcoins about to rise? I think it might be more profitable if they go down.
8 trillion coming in isn't that fast, still depends on the Fed's stance.
This tone sounds like it's trying to create public opinion for the current bottom-fishing.
Debt monetization ≈ devaluation inflation, how does that become a benefit for ordinary people?
The bottoming signal has been mentioned since last year; why bring it up now?
8 trillion in liquidity, this number is a bit frightening... need to keep a close watch.
Really, the halving cycle has been exaggerated too much; macro is the real key.
Is the bottom really this strong in 2026? I'll believe it half-heartedly.
Can retail investors still catch up with this move by the central bank?
Shitcoins might have a shot this time, let's wait and see.
The logic of debt monetization is a bit too perfect in its closure, I find it hard to believe.
Has it bottomed out? Why don't I feel it?
This must be the consensus they want to create, right?
A 5-year cycle versus a 4-year halving—this explanation is quite fresh, but we've seen debt monetization push asset prices higher back in 2015. Altcoins are indeed more elastic, but they also carry high risks.
Central bank money printing ≠ all flowing into crypto. Retail investors shouldn't just focus on 2026; first, look at the current chip distribution on the chain—that's the true market structure.
This guy is right, but he's missing a key piece of data—who's eating, and who's being eaten.