Will Japan's rate hike really cause a market crash? The market is actually waiting for an opportunity to release risks.

【ChainWen】When it comes to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes, many people’s first reaction is to worry about a market crash. But the co-founder of Glassnode recently offered another perspective on social media — what really makes the market nervous isn’t the tightening itself, but the feeling of uncertainty.

His logic is as follows: The BOJ’s policy normalization looks like tightening, but in reality, it gives global capital markets a reassurance. Bitcoin is interesting; it often starts to take off after the policy pressures are released.

Looking at the current situation makes this clearer. Speculators now hold quite a few net long JPY positions, and a sudden rate hike catches them off guard. Moreover, Japan’s government bond yields have been rising throughout the year, with both short-term and long-term yield curves hitting multi-decade highs — indicating that official rates are actually catching up with the market, not a sudden event.

From this perspective, the probability of a panic sell-off at the end of the year is actually quite low. On the contrary, those who can sniff out opportunities amid volatility might find many entry points. Transparency in policy often stabilizes expectations more than the policy itself.