#数字资产生态回暖 Bitcoin midday dip slightly retraces, currently trading around $90,165

The recent performance of Bitcoin has been quite interesting — a 0.24% decline this morning, testing the $90,000 level back and forth. Frankly, the market’s enthusiasm has indeed cooled down, trading volume is lackluster, and everyone is waiting for the next signal.

Why so dull? The key factor is the Bank of Japan. At the meeting scheduled for December 18-19 next week, economists largely agree: there's over a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, from 0.5% directly to 0.75%. The numbers may seem small, but the chain reaction from this is not simple.

Japan’s over 20 years of easing policy may come to an end. What will happen now? Arbitrage trades will close — low-interest yen loans need to be repaid, and high-risk assets bought must be sold. As dollar liquidity tightens, risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin are directly constrained. That’s why, even without bad news, the price lacks excitement.

Interestingly, institutionalization is changing the market’s character. ARK Invest’s description of Bitcoin is quite straightforward — it used to experience 70%-90% drops frequently, but now institutional investors are firmly backing it. Volatility has decreased, but at what cost? The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks is strengthening; its “digital gold” safe-haven halo is fading, and it’s increasingly acting like a risk asset.

Overall, it’s just a matter of waiting for the wind. Small fluctuations around the $90,000 level, waiting for the Bank of Japan to give a signal to guide the next move. The market carries risks, so caution is advised when entering.