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The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut is completely within expectations.
Summary of Powell’s speech:
1. This round of rate cuts has ended, and there will be a pause afterward, similar to the three rate cuts at the end of 2024.
2. The entire rate-cut cycle has not ended; at least no one is considering a rate hike.
3. Looking at non-farm payrolls, the real data is roughly around -20,000 per month. Due to statistical and modeling reasons, non-farm payrolls do not truly reflect reality.
4. Buying short-term bonds is to ensure sufficient liquidity, thereby maintaining interest rates.
The above is objective information.
Subjective impression: Not very hawkish, somewhat more dovish than I expected. Mainly, the start of short-term bond purchases is considered a relatively dovish move. It also basically confirms that the possibility of further rate cuts during his term is quite low. The market has already priced in expectations until June next year. Hasseit replacing Powell, and the number of rate cuts increasing in the second half of next year.
This also means that in the medium to short term, no clear direction has been given. Short-term liquidity entry remains uncertain, and the next 2-3 months of market performance are expected to be very difficult.