$BTC 12.13 Afternoon Market Analysis

Mainly oscillating and retreating, prioritize short positions
1. Logical Support: Triple Resonance Suppression
- Main Funds: Yesterday, 93,000 reversed to short to 90,000 for arbitrage; today, trading volume shrinks, weekend liquidity is poor, making a strong rebound unlikely.
- Technical Aspect: 93,000-93,500 is a strong resistance; 4-hour moving averages are in a bearish alignment; volume and price diverge; upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart shows clear resistance.
- Fundamental Aspect: US Dollar Index pulls back but risk appetite cools down; institutions have lowered short-term targets; no positive catalysts for upward movement.
2. Trend Qualitative: Short-term oscillation downward
- Range Determination: 15:00-17:30, core range 90,000-93,000; 93,000 is a strong resistance, 90,000 is a strong support.
- Breakout Implication: Volume breakout above 93,000 toward 94,000-94,500; breakdown below 90,000 likely to fall to 89,000-89,500.
- Pattern Signal: 4-hour Evening Star; rebound momentum is weak; oscillation and decline are the main tone.
3. Practical Trading Goals: Precise range trading, strict risk control
- Strategy One (Recommended): Focus on short positions
- Entry: Sell in batches at 92,500-93,000
- Stop Loss: 93,300 (+300 points)
- Take Profit: 90,500-90,000 (profit about 2000-2500 points)
- Rationale: 93,000 is yesterday’s high and psychological barrier; trapped traders are concentrated; liquidity is weak at the end of European session, easy to be pressured.
- Strategy Two (Conservative): Supportive long positions
- Entry: Buy in batches at 89,800-90,200
- Stop Loss: 89,500 (-300 points)
- Take Profit: 91,500-92,000 (profit about 1000-1500 points)
- Rationale: 90,000 is an integer support; nearby yesterday’s low shows support; do not bottom out without volume breakout.
- Strategy Three (Aggressive): Range arbitrage
- Operations: Short at 92,500-93,000; support long at 89,800-90,200; each position with a 300-point stop loss; target 1000-1500 points each