2026 China Economic Conference Key Summary:

1 Real Estate
• Ordinary housing enters a low liquidity + slow clearance stage, policy adjustment time makes space
• Complete de-financialization of real estate, no longer serving as a growth engine
• Asset-backed properties remaining are only high-quality new-generation premium housing(Fifth-generation housing)
• Other housing reverts to residential use, prioritizing price stability over liquidity

2 Growth Logic
• New quality productivity becomes the sole medium- and long-term growth engine
• High-end manufacturing, technology, computing power, and advanced equipment are the core resource allocations
• Fiscal policy shifts from subsidizing enterprises and infrastructure investment to “enhancing capability” (scientific research, high-end manufacturing, and urban renewal)
• Local governments shift from “growth engines” to performance functions focused on de-gdp, stabilizing employment, debt, and social expectations.( Good news: there will be no black swan events.)

3 Consumption and Employment
• Consumption supported by old-for-new exchanges + service consumption + cultural tourism subsidies
• Anti-involution measures, increasing industry concentration, restoring corporate profits and wage expectations (The core issue of Chinese people being exhausted and not making money has been recognized by the state. Anti-involution, national priority in 2026!!!)
• Flexible employment secured through social security and fiscal subsidies, stabilizing employment security (Full support if conditions allow, a basic safety net if not. Are they really planning to farm in old age? Don’t listen to the blogger’s low fertility rate hype—RMB is printed by the state!)

4 Currency and Assets
• Slightly easing, with expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions still present
• Under the coordination of stabilized real estate, anti-involution, and consumption support,
M2 has the potential to form a scissors gap
• Financial regulation tends toward “stability with easing,” no longer suppressing valuation and risk appetite
• Stock market continues a structural trend

5 Macro State
• External environment( exports) is considered weak by default, policy focus shifts to domestic demand and technological upgrading
• Economy enters a slow, low-volatility, heavily structural steady state phase (de-expansion, deleveraging, small yet refined and deep, survival is the key)