Recent discussions about the Bank of Japan's rate hike have been heating up, with three core questions: Will the central bank really raise interest rates? Will this move impact digital assets? Will the market experience another significant correction? Honestly, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates this time is already very high, and the crypto market has a deep "trauma memory" of previous incidents, making short-term emotional fluctuations inevitable.

**Data in front of us, rate hike almost a certainty**

According to the latest survey by Reuters, up to 90% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 0.75% at this meeting. Even more explosive, Reuters exclusively obtained internal sources from the central bank indicating that this meeting will further commit to continued rate hikes. From a fundamental perspective, Japan's core inflation rate still hovers around 3.0%, far exceeding the 2% policy target, making the logic for a rate hike more than sufficient. Coupled with long-term depreciation pressure on the yen, the central bank must raise interest rates to stabilize the exchange rate. Considering these factors, this rate hike is almost a "sure thing."

**Why does the crypto circle go into a frenzy at the mention of rate hikes? Because of past lessons**

Market reactions are not imagined out of thin air but are based on real traumatic experiences:

In 2022, the central bank only slightly adjusted the yield cap, and Bitcoin plummeted 12% on the same day.

In 2023, after the implementation of a relaxed yield policy, the entire US bond market plunged into chaos, and Bitcoin also tumbled.

In 2024, the central bank ended the negative interest rate cycle, and Bitcoin even approached a 6% intraday decline.

These shocks have conditioned the market to reflexively associate: big moves by the Bank of Japan = risk assets must fall. The impact on altcoins is often even more intense. This is the "panic conditioned reflex" left by collective market memory.