#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 December 12 Evening Crude Oil Price Trend Analysis

The geopolitical situation shows signs of easing, which dampens risk sentiment and has been a major driver behind the previous sharp drop in oil prices. Although a wave of technical rebound funds was attracted at the low of 56.846, the fundamentals such as ample global crude oil supply, weak demand, and ineffective OPEC+ production cuts remain. These bearish factors have not dissipated, keeping the rebound ceiling firmly in place. Large funds' enthusiasm for long positions is also limited, and the overall outlook remains cautious.

From the daily chart, the oscillation pattern has not been broken. The 1-hour chart shows a weak rebound from the 56.846 low, with short-term moving averages being briefly breached, but the price faced resistance and fell back near the 58.00 threshold. The current price is 57.322, back to the previous oscillation lower band. The downward trend pressure still exists, and there is no clear directional movement in the short term—just a consolidation phase.

On the technical indicators, the low at 56.846 indeed attracted some support funds, but there are obvious signs of profit-taking around 58.00. After a golden cross below the MACD zero line, the red bars rapidly shrank, and although the short-term moving averages have been broken above, they are now turning downward. This indicates that the rebound momentum has long been exhausted, and selling pressure remains.

Strategy: Light short positions at 57.8-58.0
Stop-loss: 58.5
Target: 57.5, 57.0

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