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The Kwon trial is entering its final stages, with prosecutors holding onto the 12-year sentence and the defense emphasizing that "failed innovations should not be criminalized." So, how did the market respond? It voted with real money—$LUNA surged by a whopping 44%, breaking through the $0.20 mark and stabilizing at $0.2048, while $LUNC also rose by 33%. Even more astonishing, the daily trading volume exploded to $470 million, more than tripling the usual amount.
Looking at the holdings data, it's clear this rally isn't ordinary. The top ten addresses bought up 120 million LUNA within a week, while the short side is crying foul—single-day liquidation amounts exceeding $10 million. Community sentiment surveys show 85% bullish, but technical indicators like RSI have shot above 75, a clear overbought signal.
The logic behind this surge is actually quite straightforward: once the verdict is delivered, the biggest uncertainty dissipates. A light sentence might trigger follow-on buying, while a harsher sentence could be seen as "bad news already priced in," encouraging bottom-fishing capital to enter. Additionally, the technical team recently released a new version, fixing numerous bugs and enabling cross-chain functionality, reigniting the "Terra Revival Plan" slogan within the community.
As for how to trade this? Aggressive traders are currently going all-in, betting that the verdict won't be too harsh and that market sentiment can continue to ferment. More conservative traders might wait for the verdict announcement—if the sentence is light, they could buy on a dip around $0.19; if it's harsh, they should watch the $0.16 support level. Of course, the most cautious approach is to stay on the sidelines and watch, since this kind of event-driven rally has no substantial change in fundamentals and carries significant risk exposure, which isn't suitable for everyone.