Bitcoin's Technical Setup: Why The Bearish Short To $40,000 May Not Be The Real Story

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Why Now Is The Perfect Opportunity To Short Bitcoin Down To $40,000 Original Link:

The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here

Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards recently shared analysis on X suggesting that Bitcoin’s current structure presents bears with “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. The chart highlighted Bitcoin falling below important resistance levels since breaking below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses.

In the analysis, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoin’s latest breakdown resembles the 2022 pattern, when price action rejected a major resistance level and fell sharply into what later became a large accumulation zone. The current structure shows a similar rejection just above the $100,000 zone, followed by a drop below the weekly EMA50. This move has brought Bitcoin into a region similar to where accumulation formed in the earlier cycle.

An overlay of the new price action on top of the previous one shows the path downward seems almost predetermined, creating the impression that Bitcoin is setting up a natural decline to as low as $40,000 in the coming weeks and months. Bitcoin was trading at $90,240 at the time of analysis. A crash to $40,000 would mean wiping out roughly 55% of its value from current levels, effectively erasing the entire progress it has built over the past two years.

Why The Perfect Short Is Not The Analyst’s Real Message

After the post gained traction, Stockmoney Lizards clarified that his message had been taken too literally. His invitation for traders to short down to $40,000 was intentionally exaggerated, and the market does not behave this way.

He clarified that he does not foresee a collapse into a deep bear market. Instead, he believes Bitcoin may consolidate, possibly sweep local lows, but not experience a prolonged breakdown. Furthermore, he noted that the worst-case scenario would be a touch of the weekly EMA200, and this is not a place where bull markets end. The real midterm prediction is a higher move for the Bitcoin price.

Before posting the supposedly bearish prediction, Stockmoney Lizards had shared another analysis describing Bitcoin as being close to the “endboss” at the weekly EMA50 indicator. That earlier chart offered a clearer view of his actual stance, predicting that Bitcoin was approaching a major technical pivot with expected upward movement into the end of December and Q1 2025. Therefore, the weekly EMA50 is the barrier that Bitcoin needs to reclaim in order to launch its next phase of bullish momentum.