Just say it—this time the Federal Reserve's rate cut seems like good news on the surface, but in reality, it has dug three big pits for BTC. Don’t get excited just by the words “rate cut,” let’s break it down one by one.

First pit: Expectations have already been fully priced in. A 25 basis point cut bringing the rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range—do you think that’s a surprise? Wrong! This number has been circulating in the market for over half a month. Institutions had already pre-positioned based on this script. Now that the cut has happened, those who needed to exit early have already done so. This is a classic case of “news being sold upon realization”—like knowing in advance you’re getting a salary raise; when the salary is actually paid out, you don’t feel much excitement. Market sentiment has been fully exhausted; all that’s left is disappointment.

The second pit is even more deadly—the expectation of easing next year has been shattered. Look at what the dot plot shows: only one rate cut in 2026. Previously, everyone hoped the Fed would keep cutting rates like opening the floodgates; now, they’re giving you just one chance a year, and it’s all subject to their mood. What does BTC rise on? Liquidity! If money isn’t loosened enough, costs can’t come down, and the engine for a bull market simply won’t start. Bulls who see this expectation can’t help but pull out. This isn’t easing; it’s tightening the faucet.

The third pit is the harshest—inside the Fed itself, they’ve started to tear apart. This time, three members voted against the cut, and some even shouted “should not cut.” In the past, rate cuts were usually unanimous, now they’re divided? It suggests inflationary pressures may still be brewing in the dark, especially considering the impact of certain new policies. No one can guarantee that monetary easing will continue. The market fears this uncertainty most; when internal discord occurs, capital’s first reaction is to run.