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Deep Analysis of the Latest Powell Speech:
1. Policy Implementation: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the expected "drop" has materialized.
2. Dot Plot Signals: Significant divergence in future expectations. The 2026 dot plot shows a wide range of views, with a median expectation of only 1–2 rate cuts. However, it’s important to note that with the Fed Chair changing next year, the policy path is highly uncertain, and the current dot plot has limited reference value.
3. Key Clarification on "Liquidity Injection" (Focus)
This month, the Fed actually injected about $40 billion of liquidity into the market. Powell clearly explained at the press conference: “Purchasing government bonds is solely for reserve management.” Essentially, this is a mildly accommodative liquidity operation aimed at providing a safety net.
4. Core Meaning of Powell’s Speech (Two sentences)
(1) Everything depends on subsequent economic data.
(2) Leave a "well-functioning" economic environment for the next Fed Chair to prevent policy from spiraling out of control.
5. Market Outlook (Personal Opinion)
The market may experience a short-term correction over the next few days, which is a normal process of digesting emotions and expectations; but thereafter, the trend is expected to gradually return to normal. The big crash last month was the result of multiple negative factors stacking up. Given the current policy and liquidity environment, the probability of a similar event occurring again in the short term is extremely low.