The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 has concluded. Overall, it did not have a significant impact on the market. According to the dot plot, the stance is somewhat more accommodative compared to September, but it still lags behind market expectations by a considerable margin. However, it's okay; the biggest uncertainty for 2026 is that Powell has been replaced by Hsu. The June dot plot after the transition will be more important.

Powell's speech, apart from being somewhat dismissive of a rate cut in January, did not show any hawkish signals. He was even quite optimistic about inflation, believing that as long as tariffs are confirmed, the impact on commodity inflation might be one-off. If inflation continues to decline, the Fed is likely to consider more rate cuts. He also reiterated that if the labor market continues to weaken, the Fed will intervene by cutting rates.

The next month will be about data. Labor market data is worsening, increasing the probability of rate cuts; inflation data is decreasing, also increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. These two points remain unchanged. The Supreme Court in January should also announce its decision on Trump’s tariffs. We will see then. Overall, Powell’s performance today is much better than in December last year—back then, he was truly hawkish. Moreover, Powell believes that GDP in 2026 will see significant growth.

Looking at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate remains quite high, mainly due to investors' strategic behavior during crucial periods. After today, the turnover rate may gradually decline. The rise in turnover rate also indicates that short-term investors are more active. From the data, this is evident: the highest turnover is among investors who bought the dip in recent days, especially new investors with a cost basis below $90,000 who are reducing their holdings.

The chip structure still looks quite normal, and no stability issues have been observed. Particularly, there are no signs of panic among investors at high positions with losses. The upcoming data in December will be key. If the expectation of a rate cut in January continues to rise, the market sentiment could remain somewhat buoyant.