#美联储降息预测 A rate cut itself is no longer that important.

The Federal Reserve will announce its last interest rate decision of the year.
It's almost a given now: a 25 basis point cut.
Before the positive expectations are realized, they are considered positive; once implemented, they are no longer viewed the same. This is the play of smart money.
01 Highly Consistent Expectations
According to data from ONE, the probability of a rate cut has already reached 87%-89.5%.
Once implemented, the interest rate will fall into the 3.5%-3.75% range.
Investors still believing that a rate cut equals positive should change their mindset as soon as possible.
When the market collectively defaults to expecting a rate cut, the current market situation has already reflected this, rather than it being a future event.
At the moment the rate cut is announced, both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies might see minor fluctuations, but major volatility is unlikely.
02 What’s More Important
The future is more important.
That is, the expectations for 2026 are more critical.
At each rate decision, the Fed updates its outlook for future interest rates, such as the duration of the rate-cut cycle, whether there will still be cuts in 2026, and if so, how many.
These pieces of information have a greater impact on the market.
However, this time, due to the government shutdown, the statistical departments are not working, and some data are missing, making future forecasts and decisions more vague and uncertain, which could lead to greater volatility.
03 Don’t Forget Japan
Another important event this month is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on December 19.
The probability of a rate hike is over 80%.
In simple terms, the yen has been the world’s best arbitrage tool for over twenty years. Once Japan hikes rates, arbitrageurs and traders will face a double whammy of “rising financing costs” and “exchange rate losses.”
The main players are institutions.
How will they respond?
Close positions. Sell US stocks and assets like Bitcoin, then pay off debts.
The impact on the market is easy to imagine.
On one side, the Fed’s rate cut expectations have been realized; on the other side, Japan’s rate hike brings a “liquidity drain” effect.
It may not lead to a big rally, but rather pressure to sell.
04 Possible Trends
In line with expectations
Most probable: a 25bp rate cut.
Subsequently, Fed Chair does not give clear guidance, avoids specifics.
As mentioned above, aside from some minor fluctuations, there will be no major change—continue with the sideways trend and the existing trajectory, awaiting the Japanese rate hike news on the 19th.
Dovish expectation
A 25bp rate cut.
Forecasts suggest more than two cuts in 2026.
The dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars rise, US stocks increase, boosting crypto, and liquidity flows back.
Hawkish expectation
A 25bp rate cut.
Forecasts indicate limited room for rate cuts in 2026.
The dollar strengthens, assets priced in dollars fall, leading to a crypto correction, and liquidity tightens.
But if these are just expectations and not policy shifts, it could be a “fakeout.”
Such expectations, combined with the impact of Japan’s rate hike on the 19th, making two negative factors overlap, should not be underestimated.
Reducing positions or temporarily exiting the market are both sensible options.
Managing positions is the essence of trading.
05 How Will the Market Move
Not sure if everyone has noticed, but currently, Bitcoin is like this: when US stocks rise, Bitcoin doesn’t follow much; when they fall, Bitcoin tends to follow quite actively.
This is actually a surface of negative skewness. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq has already turned negative, now at -0.43.
This asymmetry is increasing the difficulty of making money in crypto.
If expectations are dovish, US stocks might rise slightly along with Bitcoin.
If expectations are hawkish, US stocks could fall, and Bitcoin might plummet.
06 The Real Game
Rate cuts have long been priced into the market.
The real game is in the narrative after the rate cut—especially expectations for future policies and the subtle changes in the global liquidity landscape.
In such an uncertain environment, rather than chasing already digested news, it’s better to calmly observe capital flows and macro variables’ resonance.
The market will never simply repeat historical logic; each cycle transition is a process of淘汰 old thinking and rewarding new cognition.