The key time window is approaching: the interest rate decision will be announced at 3:00 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, and Powell will speak half an hour later.

What is the market betting on? 87.6% of people believe there will be a 25 basis point cut, lowering the federal funds rate by one notch. More subtly, it’s possible that they will also announce a monthly purchase of $45 billion in short-term government bonds starting from January next year—nominally "reserve management," but in reality, a disguised balance sheet expansion to inject liquidity into the market.

However, internally, things are not so smooth. Five FOMC members have already openly opposed a rate cut, highlighting clear political disagreements. Powell will have to walk a tightrope between hawkish and dovish stances this time — how he balances his position and words is definitely worth paying close attention to.