#美联储货币政策预期 Looking back at history, we can always glimpse some interesting patterns. This time, the US dollar is set to experience its largest weekly decline in four months, which reminds me of past shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Whenever the market begins to anticipate a policy shift by the Fed, the US dollar often undergoes a significant adjustment.

Now the market has started to consider trading strategies for 2026, and going long on the dollar no longer seems to be the mainstream view. This reminds me of late 2015 when the Fed began its rate hike cycle, and market sentiment toward the dollar also reached a peak. However, the dollar index then entered a nearly three-year downtrend starting in 2017.

It is worth noting that the selection of economic advisors to the White House could have an important impact on the dollar’s movement. If a candidate advocating for rate cuts is appointed as Fed Chairman, it is likely to accelerate the dollar’s depreciation. This brings to mind the period of Nixon's administration in 1971, when the appointed Fed Chairman Burns adopted an easing policy, leading to a sharp decline in the dollar.

History is often remarkably similar. For investors, closely monitoring policy directions and making early arrangements may give an advantage in future market fluctuations. But also be cautious, as policy shifts are often gradual processes; don’t bet easily on a single direction.