At 3 a.m., everyone's waiting for Powell's press conference.

Cut or not? That's not the main point.

The key is the action of cutting rates, combined with the tone of his speech—this is the real show to watch.

25 basis points? Probably about right. But the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to its old tricks: loosen up on actions, speak cautiously. Give the economy some support, but don't let the market get too excited.

Internally, there's still debate:

Some are worried about employment data and think more easing is needed;

Others fear the tiger of inflation might jump out again and advocate for caution and stability.

This dilemma will show up in the dot plot—will there be more rate cuts later this year? Many probably will vote against.

Crypto markets now need to watch three lines:

**First, the most exciting period from tonight to early morning**

A rate cut doesn't necessarily mean prices will go up. If Powell's tone hints at a hawkish stance, suggesting a slower pace later, the market could turn sour immediately. Leveraged traders should be cautious—consider reducing positions.

**Second, look at how the balance sheet changes in the medium term**

If the pace of balance sheet reduction slows down or even starts expanding, liquidity doors are loosening. The real driver of medium-term trends is whether there's enough money, not just a single rate cut.

**Third, the overall trend remains oscillating with a bias towards upside**

There might be a short-term shakeout, but as long as liquidity expectations improve, there will always be someone willing to buy the dip. Structural bullish logic won't collapse because of a single press conference.

You now have two choices:

Sleep tight after locking in profits tonight, or wait for panic to explode before picking your bottom?

The decision isn't in the market's hands but depends on your own rhythm and execution.

Those who stay calm make money; those who panic lose money. It's that simple.