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#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 the Fed's interest rate meeting is about to fall - whether this meeting can determine the rise and fall of the currency circle in the near future.
The expected 25 basis point rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, but the real focus is on the wording. Policymakers send dovish signals (continue to cut interest rates) on one hand and put the brakes on the market on the other - this contradictory posture is most likely to create market volatility.
There are many differences within the Fed: the weak employment camp advocates accelerating the pace of easing, while the inflation guards call for holding back, and the dot plot will most likely reflect expectations that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down this year. The number of negative votes may not be underestimated.
From a trading point of view, these 24 hours are a high-risk window - the landing of a positive signal does not mean a safe entry, even if there is a word of pause in interest rate cuts, it may trigger an instant dive. Looking ahead, the Fed's balance sheet trend is more critical: once the bond buying process is restarted, it is equivalent to quietly releasing liquidity, which is a long-term good for risk assets.
The general rhythm is to grind the bottom repeatedly, but when the liquidity floodgate really opens, the bottom taker has a chance. Whether to retreat bravely tonight or wait for the waterfall to pick up chips, each risk tolerance has the final say.
They're truly a contradiction demon, cutting rates while hitting the brakes. Retail investors are most likely to get trapped.
Anything can happen within 24 hours; I choose to lie flat and wait for the waterfall.
If the dot plot shows a slowdown, it will directly trigger a sell-off. We'll see then.
The real signal is when the liquidity gate opens; right now, it's all just talk.
Wait, will there really be more votes against this time? I feel that the Fed is not so hawkish anymore
I'm tired of hearing the 24-hour high-risk window, so let's wait for liquidity to really come out
Buying bonds = releasing liquidity? There is nothing wrong with this logic, I am afraid that it will be thunder and rain again
The bottom pick sounds comfortable, but who can be sure that this is the bottom, I'm still waiting and seeing
To put it nicely, it's not the attitude of betting on the Fed, guessing the right fortune, and guessing the wrong bankruptcy
If the pace of interest rate cuts slows down, this wave of gains may come to an end, and the risk is really big
I just want to know if it will be smashed tonight, and whether to reduce your position now, everyone
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To put it bluntly, it is a gambling wording, and the currency circle is a casino in the past 24 hours.
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The moment liquidity opens is the real opportunity, and entering the market now is equivalent to betting on the hawks to shut up.
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The Fed is torn like this, and the dot plot must be a contradiction of "both interest rate cuts and worries", it depends entirely on how to interpret it.
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I don't believe in any interest rate cuts, unless I see the resumption of the bond buying plan - that is the release of real money liquidity.
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The bottom has been grinding for so long, either there will be a reversal tonight or continue to dive, anyway, holding the currency is betting on the policy tone.
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The biggest fear is that Powell says, "We're ready," and then turns around and raises interest rates, and history will repeat itself.
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Retreat bravely from the rapids or wait for the waterfall to pick up chips? It depends on how many limits you can bear.
The Fed is infighting, and the dot plot must be a mess again
It's a meat grinder 24 hours a day tonight, don't be fooled by the good news
Liquidity is king, wait for the floodgates to open and you're done