At 3 a.m. on the 11th, the Fed was going to open cards again.

Don't stare at the 25 basis point figure this time - what really determines the fate of the market is what Powell will say next.

Throw out the conclusion first: a 25bp rate cut is basically certain, but the words will be so hard that you doubt your life. Continuous interest rate cuts? Don't even think about it, I'll pinch you off on the spot.

The market has pushed the probability of 25bp to 88%, and only 11% remain unchanged, as for the 50bp cut? That 1% chance is basically equal to none. The price has long told you the answer.

The real drama is behind.

Sugar is indeed for you - the interest rate cut action has landed. But the knife is right away: dot plots and press conferences are the real slaughterhouses. The market first uses sweetness to trick you in, and then lets you decide whether to make money or be harvested in the fluctuations.

Why drop? Three reasons.

The tail risk of employment data is hardening. The marginal weakening of the labor market is rising, and the probability of policy accidental injury is rising, and small adjustments are the basic operation of risk management.

The fog of data turns aggressive action into a gamble. With government shutdowns delaying the release of key statistics and incomplete information, the Commission is more likely to opt for a small calibration rather than betting on a big one.

Powell's constraints are not macro data, but internal governance. When the hawk-dove divide intensifies, what he needs is a manageable compromise: give the market an unexpected action, give the hawks a set of rhetoric that will not let go, and firmly hold the future discretion in his hands.

But don't completely rule out the possibility of not surrendering.

Inflation is still above 2%, and early release will be seen as a credit discount by hawks. The greater the difference, the more some people advocate holding back in exchange for internal consensus.

The most likely script? Down 25 basis points, the statement is hawkish, and the press conference is more hawkish.

Powell will drive three nails into your head: policy is still restrictive, subsequent meeting-by-meeting evaluations, and market pricing is not equal to the Fed's commitment.

There are three needles to keep an eye on on the night of the resolution:
whether the statement on employment has weakened significantly;
whether the median path in 2026 in the dot plot will rise or the fragmentation will intensify;
Whether to take the initiative to suppress the expectation of too rapid relaxation of financial conditions at the press conference.

Therefore, even if interest rates are cut, they may not necessarily rise. The probability of needle insertion back and forth is extremely high.

Now big money only trades US stocks and bitcoin because there is real value backing there.