Tonight is going to be another sleepless night.

A bunch of key data releases are piling up, and the entire market is on edge waiting for the news. Just look at this schedule: at 8:30 PM, we get November corporate layoff numbers; at 9:30 PM, last week’s initial jobless claims hit (the market is betting on 220,000); and at 11 PM, we have the supply chain pressure index and monthly factory orders as the grand finale.

This pace feels like a non-stop bombardment.

Right now, the market’s obsession with a December rate cut has reached a fever pitch—over at Polymarket, the odds of a 25-basis-point cut have shot up to 94%. Everyone thinks it’s a done deal. The dollar has been falling lately, and risk assets have been itching to break out.

But then again, is the market really that sure?

Unless tonight’s data drops a huge bomb—like employment numbers suddenly blowing past expectations—it’s probably going to be hard to reverse the rate cut outlook. But who knows? Black swans love to show up when everyone’s feeling the most relaxed.

For traders, it’s a tough call right now. Do you ride this wave of rate cut expectations, or do you cash out early, worried that “good news is already priced in and could turn bearish”? Will tonight’s data fuel the rally, or will it be the trigger for a reversal in expectations?

We’ll know in a few hours. The market will give us the answer.