Hassett’s style has changed dramatically lately.

Not long ago, he was dropping hints everywhere that “the next Fed chair has to be me.” But in the past couple of days, he’s gone on CNBC and started showering praise on Waller, Bowman, and Walsh, and even said Trump’s choice is “extremely difficult.”

This shift is definitely not some spur-of-the-moment thing.

He’s intentionally dialing things down now, most likely to pave the way for his eventual nomination. After all, becoming Fed chair isn’t something the White House can just order—he needs to get through the Banking Committee and then the Senate, and anything can go wrong at any stage.

Too high-profile? Easy to make enemies.

Keep a low profile? Leaves room for behind-the-scenes maneuvering.

The way he looked like a sure thing over the past month, I already thought it was a bit risky. In US political circles, the more confident someone appears, the more likely they are to get blindsided at a critical moment.

But starting last week, he clearly toned it down—a classic “minimize risk before officially entering the race” move.

From another angle: his silence and restraint actually show his odds are improving.

This also matches the recent moves from Trump’s team. They’re clearly laying the groundwork according to the “Hassett plan,” aiming to get the nomination confirmed with as little resistance as possible.

Interestingly, even though Hassett’s odds on a certain prediction market dropped by 1%, he’s still firmly in first place.

The market has picked up on his lower profile, but hasn’t realized yet that this is actually a positive sign.

Previously, I thought Waller had a higher probability of getting through, but in the last two weeks, the landscape has flipped. Trump’s adjustments, Hassett’s strategic shift, and the market’s subtle reactions all point to the same conclusion:

This is pretty much a done deal.