Trump signed a bill requiring Epstein files to be made public by the 19th, but only 56% of people on Polymarket believe it.

[Crypto World] There’s an interesting market recently on Polymarket—betting on whether Trump will publicly release the Epstein files on December 19 or by the end of the year. Logically, this should be a done deal, right? After all, Trump already signed the “Epstein Files Transparency Act” on November 19, and the law clearly states that the Department of Justice must release all unclassified files within 30 days, which lines up perfectly with December 19.

But guess what the market thinks? The probability of a release on the 19th is only 56%, and even by year-end it’s just 70%. Where’s this huge gap coming from?

The key is that the settlement rules for this market are absurdly strict. The files must be released directly by an executive branch agency on their official website or via a press release to count, and they must include substantive content about Epstein’s illegal activities—federal court unsealing doesn’t count, congressional releases don’t count, just releasing a directory of metadata doesn’t count either. Even if the DOJ wants to meet the deadline, they have to go through and redact all victim and personal privacy info first, which is slow and could trigger lawsuits. If anyone questions the scope of the redactions, the files might not get released in a “qualifying” way in time.

What’s even crazier is that three traders have each put over 90% of their positions into betting the files won’t be released according to the rules. 0xtherealbatman usually opens trades of less than $10, but this time bought $4,000 worth of “No” for the 19th at an average price of $0.44; ohawaffle’s historical average trade is $60, but now holds $4,900 of the 19th “No” at $0.43; VT2025 is even more aggressive, holding nearly $2,000 of the 31st “No” shares at an average of $0.26.

Either these three see right through bureaucratic inertia, or they’re betting the settlement rules will choke this market. Either way, the legal deadline and market expectations are in direct conflict right now, so there’s sure to be some drama in the coming days.