The recent trend of Dogecoin is a bit hard to read.

As the leading meme coin, DOGE still has a pretty strong market cap—$23.28 billion is nothing to scoff at. But as for the price, it’s been on a steady decline. The annualized drop is 67%, and it fell another 2.4% just yesterday. Those numbers are definitely a bit painful to look at.

However, there are some on-chain movements worth considering.

**Are retail investors quietly accumulating?**

The bubble risk model shows that the current market sentiment toward DOGE valuation is pretty low. This usually means it’s not in an overvalued zone; in fact, it could mean that some are quietly accumulating. On-chain data backs this up—daily active addresses recently spiked to 73,560, showing a clear uptick in participation.

**Spot funds are flowing in, but...**

Retail investors have been consistently buying on the spot market this week. Net trading flow shows a net buy of around $50 million over the past seven days, about 2% of the total market cap, with the latest inflow around $3 million. Buying power is definitely increasing.

But here’s the problem: overall trading volume is shrinking. Market sentiment is still pretty cold, which might limit the strength of any price rebound. There’s money coming in, but not enough heat—it’s like trying to boil water that hasn’t reached the boiling point yet.

**Where to next?**

If sentiment and capital can align, DOGE could test some key price levels in the short term. But right now, that “if” is still up in the air. After all, the trading volume is what it is—buying pressure without volume is still hard to break through.

In short, there are some positive signals in the data, but the market overall is still bottoming out. As for a real reversal, we’ll probably need to wait and see a bit longer.