#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 Most people are much more confused in this cycle than in 2021-2022.

Looking back at 2020–2022, it was actually clearer then; the macro narrative was almost linear, with extreme easing leading to inflation, followed by violent rate hikes, and then a continuous slaughter of valuations.

At that time, the internal main line of cryptocurrency was relatively singular:

2020: DeFi Summer
2021 Up: L1 Bull Market (SOL / AVAX / BSC), NFT
2021 Down–2022: Explosion (Luna → 3AC → FTX)

Although the previous round was fast-paced and the market sentiment was chaotic, the logic was very linear and straightforward: when liquidity increases, prices rise; when liquidity decreases, the market falls.

The difference among all the participants in the market is also very simple; some believed earlier, while others believed later. The latter took over from the former. In fact, at that time, everyone in the entire cryptocurrency field was following the same script and path.

This round of circumstances has clearly disrupted the original cyclical rules due to various events, leading to the market simultaneously operating under several sets of cyclical rules.

The logic of funds is severely split, with ETF funds and native crypto funds operating at different rhythms. The interest rate cut cycle and the four-year cycle continue to play against each other, and a portion of funds treating crypto as a speculative tech stock will also amplify the volatility of the crypto market.

Narrative overload is serious. In the last round, there were two big stories: DeFi and NFT, with all the money rushing in. This round includes but is not limited to: AI, RWA, L2, modularization, Bitcoin ecosystem, DePIN, Meme... The problem is that each story has only been half-told, none have fully run through, and there hasn't been a super application that is both profitable and attracts high attention like the previous round of DeFi.

Investors don't know who to trust with their funds, so they can only invest a little in each sector, which leads to none of the sectors being able to sustain a dominant bull market.

In the previous round, there were super gamblers like Three Arrows Capital and FTX, who dared to use billions of dollars to forcefully pull up a sector to establish the main line of the bull market. Now these people are all gone, and the surviving old investors are suffering from PTSD. Most of the newcomers start by going on-chain to play with meme coins, showing no concern for any technical vision and not continuing to follow their beliefs. In reality, crypto has not gained any high-quality fresh blood.