The probability of Hasset becoming the new chairman of the Fed has surged to 35%, making him the frontrunner.

On November 28, according to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market “Who will be Trump's next Fed Chair announced in 2025?”, the nomination probability of former White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett experienced explosive growth this Wednesday. His probability surged from a low of 14.2% to a high of 35%, rising more than 146%, making him the top favorite in the market. Reports indicate that Hassett has been viewed by internal White House advisors and allies as the frontrunner among Fed Chair candidates. As the most steadfast “dove” (a strong advocate for significant rate cuts) in the president's core economic team, the market believes Hassett is the candidate most capable of executing the president's rate-cutting intentions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen confirmed that the selection has entered the final five candidates, and an announcement may be made before Christmas, further accelerating the market's pricing for this “most loyal rate-cutting” candidate. Based on high confidence in Hassett's eventual nomination, another long-term prediction market “Who will be the Fed Chair nominated by Trump? (Deadline December 31, 2026)” also shows Hassett leading with an extraordinarily high probability of 56%, while the probability of “no new chair announced” is nearly 0. In this long-term market, the second most popular candidate is current Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller, with a probability of 24%: his “hawkish” monetary policy stance combined with a moderate political image makes him the most likely “backup” candidate to replace Hassett.