The core influencing factors in the market show a mixed trend: the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in December has risen to 70.2%, while the probability of rate cuts has fallen to 29.8%. The expectation of tightening dollar liquidity is creating an implicit pressure of 1.5%-2% on encryption assets; at the same time, risk sentiment is marginally improving, with the probability of the U.S. government shutdown ending reaching 86%. The market anticipates dual favourable information from liquidity injection and legislative windows, combined with the resurgence of net inflows into Bitcoin ETF after six consecutive days of outflows, providing key support for asset prices. The flow of institutional funds shows a differentiated characteristic, with institutional investments in Ethereum reaching $9.6 billion in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing Bitcoin's $8.7 billion for the first time, highlighting the continuous preference of the market for yield-bearing encryption assets.