Bank of America forecasts US real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, propelled by five different tailwinds. Meanwhile, JPMorgan stressed various headwinds for the macroeconomic landscape next year.

The OBBBA fiscal package adding roughly half a point through consumer spending and capex, lagged Fed cuts boosting activity in the second half, more growth-friendly trade policy, sustained AI investment, and base effects lifting measured output are listed in BofA’s forecast.

Additionally, headline PCE runs at 2.6%, core at 2.8%, unemployment drifts to 4.3%, a soft landing with mildly sticky inflation, and a Fed partway through its easing cycle.