#NonfarmPayrollsBeatExpectations

September riddle: the labor market is strong, but the Fed is in no hurry. What is happening?

The labor market data from the US has left everyone puzzled and presented us with a classic "mixed" picture. Let's analyze what these figures mean and where the market might move.

Facts as they are:

· New jobs created in September: 119,000.
· Forecast: 50,000.
· Result: Significantly exceeded expectations, almost by 2.5 times!
· Unemployment rate: Unexpectedly rose to 4.4%.

At first glance, these are ideal data for the "hawks" ( supporters of a tough monetary policy at the Fed ). The economy is creating jobs en masse, which means it is overheated and needs to maintain high rates to cool down inflation. But it's not all that simple.

What's the catch?

The rise in unemployment amid record job creation is a troubling signal. It may indicate that:

1. The number of people actively looking for work (labor force) is growing faster than jobs are being created.
2. There are signs of weakness in other sectors that are not visible in the headline NFP figure.

Is this the very "golden mean" (soft landing) that the Fed is looking for? Or the first cracks?

Market reaction: rates remain high

Markets reacted instantly: the likelihood of a December rate cut fell to ~40%. Investors understood — with such strong employment data, the Fed will certainly not rush into easing. Why cut rates if the economy is already generating a lot of jobs?

Where is the market heading?

Right now we are witnessing a classic battle:

· Strong data (119K jobs) → Delay in rate cuts → Strengthening of the dollar, pressure on risky assets (stocks, crypto).
· Signs of cooling ( unemployment rising to 4.4% ) → Hope for future easing → Support for markets.

In the short term, a "hawkish" logic may prevail: money remains expensive, which is not very good for liquidity. But if in the next reports we see confirmation of the cooling trend ( without a sharp spike in unemployment ), the hope for rate cuts in 2025 will return and give the market a new impulse.